NORFOLK, Va. — When I started as a professional meteorologist in 1980, long-range hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) went out three days, or 72 hours. It would be over 20 ...

Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, weather forecasts, even with ever improving numerical weather prediction models, eventually lose all skill. Meteorologists have a strong desire to better ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

As a climatologist and a geographer, I am very interested in how weather and climate varies across geographical space. To that extent, how does the forecastability of weather vary from one location to ...

Root mean square error (rms, or its square, the variance distance) is often used to measure differences between simulated and observed fields. In this case ...